Questions tagged [expected-value]

Questions about the expected value of a random variable.

The average value of a randomly chosen quantity is its expectation or expected value. For example, the expected value of the number you get when you roll a fair 6-sided dice is 3.5.

In general, if $X$ is a random variable defined on a probability $(\Omega, \Sigma, P)$, then the expected value of $X$, denoted by $E[X], \langle X \rangle,$ or $\bar{X}$ is defined as the Lebegue integral

$$E[X]= \int_{\Omega} X(\omega) dP(\omega)$$

The expected value is often the first and most important thing you want to know about a random variable. For example, in a betting game, the best strategy is often the one that maximizes the expected value of the amount you win.

This tag is for questions about:

  • Computing the expected value in a specific situation.
  • Understanding the properties of expected values, such as Markov's inequality or linearity of expectation.
  • Proving theorems about the expected value of abstract random variables.
  • Understanding what the expected value means and what it tells you about a random variable.
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Expected number of intersections within a circle

Consider a circle. We perform random walks on the boundary of this circle. Without loss of generality, consider the circle to be centered at the origin, and our random walk starts $0^{\circ}$. You return to the starting point after $n$ steps. We…
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Problem Regarding Linearity of Expectation

Suppose we have a universe consisting of $m$ elements where $k$ of them are of type $1$ and $m-k$ are of the second type. You sample $n$ elements from the universe equally likely without looking. If $Z$ is the number of type $1$ elements in the…
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Maximize Expected Profit and Minimize Volatility of a Stock Portofio

The following question was given on a sample Quantitative Research Exam: You are given 1 million dollars to invest in a portfolio consisting of two different stocks: A and B. Stock A has an expected return of 10 percent and a volatility (standard…
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Expectation of the ratio of two random variables

Suppose $X>0$ and $Y>0$ are not necessarily independent random variables Another random variable is $Z>0$ Then, does $E\big[\frac{1+Y}{1+X}\big]>\beta$ imply $E\big[\frac{1+Y+\beta Z}{1+X+Z}\big]>\beta$? As an additional question, suppose there is…
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expected value of deterministic function

I am intuitively convinced that $E[f(X)] = f(X)$, if $f$ is deterministic, but I cannot derive it using the integral definition of expectation. Assuming $X \sim unif(0,1)$ I get: $$ E[f(X)] = \int^{1}_{0}{f(x)p(x)dx} = \int^{1}_{0}{f(x)dx} =…
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Finding the Supremum of $E(y_t)$?

Suppose we have, $$y_t = a + {\alpha}y_{t-1}+u_t$$ for $t>k$, where $k$ is a positive integer and $\alpha \in (0,1)$. And, $$y_t = b + {\alpha}y_{t-1}+u_t$$ for $t\leq k$. And assume that $a$ and $b$ are two different real constants. $u_t$ are iid…
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Sarah the squirrel problem (Linearity of Expectations)

From https://brilliant.org/wiki/linearity-of-expectation/ I have two questions: First question The "obvious" solution is by using linearity of expectations. My idea was to write the states as $E(n - 1|n)$, where $n$ is the number of steps she needs…
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Expected value to have no heads

This question was asked in an interview of a Quantitative finance company. You have $\textit{n}$ fair coins with either heads or tails facing up arranged in a row. You play a game in rounds described as follows: In each round check the number of…
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How many days do we have to wait?

If it is a good day (G) there are 60% chances tomorrow will be G and 40% chances tomorrow will be bad (B). If it is a B day, there 30% chances tomorrow will be G and 70% chances tomorrow will be B. If today is B, what is the expected number of days…
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Expected value of drawing three cards with replacement

You have a standard deck of cards. Each card is worth its face value (A=$1$, K=$13$). What is the expected value (EV) of drawing three cards with replacement (cards are placed back into the deck after each being drawn)? Here is my attempt: The…
CountDOOKU
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Expected value of maximum of n independent dice rolls

Was hoping someone could just provide a logic check of my work, as some of my results did not match up to answers I saw online. Let $X_{n}$ denote the maximum of n independent dice rolls. Let's first find the CDF: $P(X_{n}\leq x) = \prod P({X_{i}}…
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How do I calculate this expectation?

This is a very trivial question but I have a lot of trouble dealing with Expectation, summation and product together. So I need find this: $\mathbb{E}(\sum_{i=1}^n m_i X_i)$ where $m_i$ are constants. I know that next step would be: $\sum_{i=1}^n…
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Expectation and law of large numbers

A fair color dice has two green sides, three red sides, and one blue side. It is rolled an infinite number of times. Let $$ S_n:=\text { number of } \text { ,,green''} - \text{ number of ,,blue'' } $$ be the difference of the number of dice result…
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Concave function and average of random variable.

Let $X$ be positive random variable. For a natural number $n$, Let $Y_1 , Y_2, ...Y_n $~$^{i.i.d} X$, and let $a_n=E( \ln(\frac{Y_1 +\cdots+Y_n}{n}))$ Then does $a_n \leq a_{n+1}$ hold true? I think this problem with Jensen inequality, but I can't…
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