Questions tagged [martingales]

For question about discrete or continuous (super/sub)martingales. Often used with [probability-theory] tag.

In probability theory, a martingale is a sequence of random variables (i.e., a stochastic process) for which, at a particular time in the realized sequence, the expectation of the next value in the sequence is equal to the present observed value even given knowledge of all prior observed values. Expressing the following mathematically:

A sequence of random variables $X_0, X_1, \dots$ with finite means such that the conditional expectation of $X_{n+1}$ given $X_0, X_1, X_2, \dots, X_n$ is equal to $X_n$, i.e., $$\mathbb{E}[X_{n+1}\mid X_0, X_1, \dots, X_n] = X_n.$$

A one-dimensional random walk with steps equally likely in either direction $(p=q=\frac12)$ is an example of a martingale.

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Definition of martingales

Let $(M_t)_t$ a stochastic process. Let $(\mathcal F_t)_t$ an adapted filtration. The process $(M_t)_t$ is called a martingales if 1) $\mathbb E|M_t|<\infty $ 2) $\mathbb E[M_t\mid \mathcal F_s]=M_s$ where $s\leq t$. My problem is the 2) in the…
idm
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Is the Stock Prices in a Perfect Market martingale or not?

Stock Prices in a Perfect Market Let Xn,, be the closing price at the end of day n of a certain publicly traded security such as a share of stock. While daily prices may fluctuate, many scholars believe that, in a perfect market, these price…
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Construction of a Martingale from a random walk

A martingale can be constructed from a random walk. Can someone give a numerical example of how this can be done together with some little proof to spice up the example? Thanks in anticipation
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Martingale: problem with conditional esperance

Let $(S_n)$ a martingale refer to $(X_n)$. Show that for all integer $k\leq l\leq m$ $$\mathbb E[(S_m-S_l)S_k]=0.$$ I don't understand the to following equality: $$\mathbb E[(S_m-S_l)S_k]=\mathbb E\big[\mathbb E[(S_m-S_l)S_k\mid…
idm
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Martingale: Whay $\mathbb E[S_n]=\mathbb E[S_1]$.

I've got a theorem (without proof) that say: If $(S_n)$ is a martingale refer to $(X_n)$, then $\mathbb E[S_n]=\mathbb E[S_1]$. I don't really understand why. Is there an intuitive why to see it ?
idm
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Martingale: why $\mathbb E[S_{n+m}\mid X_1,...,X_n]= S_n$.

Let $(S_n)$ a martingale by ratio to $(X_n)$ (I'm not sure if the terme "by ratio" is correct, I hope you'll understand). A lemma of my lecture say: $$\mathbb E[S_{n+m}\mid X_1,...,X_n]= S_n,\quad n,m\geq 1.$$ The proof goes like: $$\mathbb…
idm
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