Upon some event there is a 50% chance that something has a 75% chance of happening. It is my understanding that there is a $.75/2 = .375$ probability of this. Is there any way to know the probability if the first event does not occur?
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We do not know what the chance is if the $50$% are not hit. Therefore, we cannot determine the actual chance.
Peter
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I'm not sure this makes sense, maybe I'm misunderstanding. – user202800 Dec 25 '14 at 21:13
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You say : The chance is $50$% , that the chance is $75$%. So, in the half of the cases the chance is $75$%, but what is it in the other half of the cases ? – Peter Dec 25 '14 at 21:15
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Dispute it effectively by pointing out that $$ \frac{2}{8} + \frac{1}{8} = .375 \neq .325 $$
Mark Fischler
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