Is this task defined mathematically correctly?

Question

I wish to make a math model for predicting users clicking on context advertising.

Math definition: Let $X$ be the set of users, and $Y$ be the set of adverts. We make a mapping $F: X×Y→P$ that should map a concrete user and concrete advert to the probability that this user will click this advert.

Note: User has only one advert per page and s/he can click or not click. This means that the probability that user clicks the advert is $\frac12$ and there is nothing to predict. But my model will use a lot of information to predict a click. Should I use the term "probability"? Maybe I should say that $F$ maps to $[0;1]$?

Thanks

score 0 · Answer 1 · answered Jun 04 '15 at 19:13

0

"User has only one adv. per page and he can click or don't click. This mean that probability, that user click adv. is 1/2"

No, the user is less likely to click on the advert than to not do - they aren't equally likely which is your suggestion.

Anyway to make any kind of prediction you need stats and to further make a prediction based on a particular user you need a lot of stats. If you think "F" is just something I can tell you I think you're out of your depth

answered Jun 04 '15 at 19:13

John Fernley

1,218

I should just define this task abstractly. May I call the F result space as probability space, if I suppose that this F will be return number of [0;1]? – user3378283 Jun 04 '15 at 19:21
No that's just the set [0,1], not a probability space at all. – John Fernley Jun 05 '15 at 22:47

Is this task defined mathematically correctly?

1 Answers1