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I have a question like this.

There are $50$ people in a line. The time takes to serve a person has a mean of $5$ mins and standard deviation of $3$ mins. $5$ people can be served at a time. What is the probability that $50$ people can be served within an hour$?$

We can take $\mu = 5$ and $\sigma = 3$

So a normal distribution can be derived $N(5, \frac{3^2}{50})$

But the answer in the book says normal distribution is $N(250, 3\sqrt{50})$

How can I derive such an equation$?$

user118494
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Padmal
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1 Answers1

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Let $t$ be the random variable which represent the time to serve a single customer. The problem tells us that the expectation value of $t$ is $5 \ \mathrm{min}$,

$$ E(t)=5\ \mathrm{min},$$

and it has a standard deviation of $3\ \mathrm{min}$, which means that the variance is $9 \ \mathrm{min}^2$,

$$ Var(t) = 9 \ \mathrm{min}^2.$$


We want to determine the probability distribution for the total time, which will be the sum of the individual times; this means that we should use the central limit theorem for sums rather than for the average value of a sample. The total time, which we will denote by $T$, is the sum of the time for $50$ customers,

$$ T = t_1 + t_2 + \cdots + t_{50}, $$

we can determine the expected value of $T$ by using the sum rule for expectations,

$$ E(T) = E(t_1+t_2+\cdots+t_{50}) \\ = E(t_1) + E(t_2) + \cdots + E(t_{50}) \\ = 5\ \mathrm{min} + 5\ \mathrm{min} + \cdots 5\ \mathrm{min} \\ = 50 \times 5\ \mathrm{min} \\ = 250 \ \mathrm{min},$$

similarly we can determine the variance of $T$ by using the sum rule for variances,

$$Var(T) = Var(t_1+t_2+\cdots t_{50})\\ = Var(t_1) + Var(t_2) + \cdots + Var(t_{50}) \\ 9 \ \mathrm{min}^2 + 9 \ \mathrm{min}^2 + \cdots + 9 \ \mathrm{min}^2 \\ = 50 \times 9 \ \mathrm{min}^2, $$

the standard deviation is just the square root of the variance so get,

$$ \sigma = \sqrt{50\times 9 \ \mathrm{min^2}} = 3 \sqrt{50} \ \mathrm{min}$$

So our distribution will be $N(250 \ \mathrm{min}, 3 \sqrt{50} \ \mathrm{min})$.

Spencer
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  • So in the question, mean of 5 mins is the average of a sample? – Padmal Jan 15 '16 at 06:46
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    That is probably how it would be determined in practice, but that wasn't what I meant. There are two versions of the central limit theorem which are usually taught, which differ only superficially. One version is for the probability distribution for sample means. The other version is for the probability distribution of a sum. In this case the latter of the two was appropriate. – Spencer Jan 15 '16 at 06:49
  • now I understand :) Thanks for the big help! – Padmal Jan 15 '16 at 06:52