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He has a $\frac{1}{8}$ chance to hit my hero with each attack of c'thun (a card in the game hearthstone). C'thun has $30$ attacks in this situation. So he manages to hit me all $30$ times out of $30$ with $\frac{1}{8}$ chance each time.

What's the actual odds of this happening? Do we just do binomial distribution for this? Number of trials would be $n = 30$, probability of success would be $0.125$

That gives me the answwer of $\approx8.07794\times10^{-28}$

Is this correct? If so or if not, can someone show me the formula set up with my example?

Bérénice
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Ben
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  • Yes, the chance $p$ happening $n$ times in a row is $p^n$, so $\frac{1}{8} ^{30} \approx 8.077\times10^{-28}$ – Vepir May 07 '16 at 13:25
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    If that really happened to you on a full board I hope you were recording, because that is an incredibly unlikely event and should be submitted to a highlight reel. Keep in mind that once a minion dies it can no longer be targeted by the battlecry of c'thun so in experience it appears that a large number of c'thun's hits will go face but that is usually because the board has already been cleared and it has nowhere else to go. The math is correct, as already mentioned. – JMoravitz May 07 '16 at 13:31
  • Thank you for the formatting changes, Jennifer. And yeah I assumed I did it correctly. and @JMoravitz I wasn't recording sadly. I have the text based replay from HST but that's about it lol. – Ben May 07 '16 at 13:53

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