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There is a Pick 5 from 35 lottery called Mass Cash. It has had 4,073 drawings over its history so far.

What would be the expected frequency of a given number being drawn, assuming each number has an equal chance of being drawn over the life of this lottery, with 4,073 drawings so far (i.e. how many times could the number 23 be expected to be drawn over 4,073 drawings, for example).

Then, what would be the expected frequency for the last (most recent) 5, 10, 25, 30, 50, and 100 most recent drawings for a number.

Also, what would be the corresponding expected frequencies for the Lucky for Life game which is a pick 5 from 48 game with only 151 drawings so far in the current matrix and for the last (most recent) 5, 10, 25, 30, and 50, 100 drawings.

I would like to know so I can determine whether each individual number is above or below or at the long and short term trend.

Thank you very much in advance for any answer you can supply.

Sincerely,

Kosh

Kosh
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1 Answers1

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If each drawing takes 5 numbers out of the possible 35, then each number has a $\frac{5}{35} = \frac{1}{7}$ chance of being drawn in a given drawing. So, over the course of 4,073 drawings, the expected number of times any number will be drawn is $4073 \times \frac{1}{7} = 581\frac{6}{7} \approx 581.86$ times. You can apply similar calculations for your other questions.

(On a side note, while it's interesting to analyse which numbers are drawn more or less often, it's unlikely that doing so will give you any predictive ability on what numbers are likely to be drawn in the future, assuming that drawings are independent of each other.)

ConMan
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