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The exercise of my homework assignment says

"Let $E$, $F$, $G$ be independent events with probability $\frac{1}{2}$, $\frac{1}{4}$, $\frac{1}{5}$. Let $X$ be the number of events that occur. Determine the random variable $X$, its mean value and variance."

My concern is on the first question, and I hope to be able to explain it. Shouldn't I know how many of the event that occur belong to $E$, $F$, $G$? On a first guess I expect not to be able to write analitically $\Bbb{P}(X=k)$. My only attempt is by using conditioning, but I guess I should know how many of the three events occurred; defining $X\colon = X_1+\cdots+X_n$

\begin{multline} \Bbb{P}(X = k) = \Bbb{P}(X=k|X_1,\cdots,X_{n_1}\in E)\cdot\Bbb{P}(X_1,\cdots,X_{n_1}\in E) + \\ \Bbb{P}(X=k|X_{n_1+1},\cdots,X_{n_2}\in F)\cdot\Bbb{P}(X_1,\cdots,X_{n_2}\in F) + \\ \Bbb{P}(X=k|X_{n_2+1},\cdots,X_{n_3}\in G)\cdot\Bbb{P}(X_1,\cdots,X_{n_3}\in G) + \\ \Bbb{P}(X=k|X_{n_1 + n_2 + n_3},\cdots,X_{n}\notin E\cup F\cup G)\cdot\Bbb{P}(X_{n_1 + n_2 + n_3},\cdots,X_{n}\notin E\cup F\cup G) \end{multline}

where $n_1,\,n_2,\,n_3\,$ are the respective numbers of the events occurring that belong to $E$, $F$, $G$ respectively.

Let me know if my question is as unclear as the exercise is to me.

Eugenio
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  • the question is far to be clear. The mechanic of the events "occurring" what is? – Masacroso Mar 30 '17 at 22:33
  • To answer your abstract question: other possible events are irrelevant. the question clearly refers to the number of the events $E,F,G$ that occur. We can compute $P(X=3)$ for example as the product $\frac 12\times \frac 14\times \frac 15$. Similarly $P(X=0)=\frac 12\times \frac 34\times \frac 45$. The other cases are somewhat more tedious. – lulu Mar 30 '17 at 22:51

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