I am referring to this: http://www.mdpi.com/1999-5903/9/3/37/htm
In Chapter 3.1, the author assumes a scenario where in the first 50ms of an observation, pages 1 and 2 are dirty. In the next 50ms, pages 2, 3 and 4 are dirty. And in the last 50ms, pages 1, 4 and 5 are dirty. He then proceeds to assert that the probability of transitioning from 1 to 2 = 50%, 1 to 3 = 25%, 1 to 4 = 25%, etc and then outlines the entire state diagram. Note, author calls them w1, w2, etc. I prefer to just refer to them as numbers 1, 2, etc.
My issue is that I do not understand how he got these probabilities. What I was expecting was that the author would outline a sequence: 1,2,2,3,4,1,4,5 and the P(1 to 2) would be = # of (1 to 2)s / # of 1s = 50%. P(1 to 3) = # of (1 to 3)s / # of 1s = 0% and so.
I do not claim that I remotely really understand Markov models/chains that well so please, keep answers simple and not TOO abstract and very easy to understand. From what ive seen online, markov models can be very abstract and confusing.
