Suppose there are 9 white balls and 3 red balls. A,B,C take turns to pick a ball without replacement . The first person to get a red ball wins.
a) What is the probability that A wins in 1st try?
$\Rightarrow \frac{3}{12}=\frac14$
b) What is the probability that B wins in second try?
$\Rightarrow P(\text{B wins})=P(B \text{ picks a red ball}|\text{A picks a white ball})P(\text{A picks a white ball})=\frac3{11}\frac{9}{12}$ After A has picked a white ball, B has to choose from 3 red balls, among 11 balls remaining
The above answer should be $\frac14$
c) What is the probability that B wins in 5th trial?
$ P(\text{B wins in 5th trial})=P(A_1=W,B_1=W,C_1=W,A_2=W,B_2=R)=\frac{9}{12}\frac{8}{11}\frac{7}{10}\frac{6}{9}\frac{3}{8}$