Question:
team1 has a 9% chance at getting the top pick.
team 2 has a 3% chance at getting the top pick
If team 1 trades a player for team 2’s pick does team one now have a 12% chance at the top pick?
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Eric P
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Well....as you probably know, trades of NBA lottery picks come with complex conditions. For instance, in the next draft we have "76ers Will send more favorable of Kings‘ and Sixers‘ first round picks to Celtics (top-1 protected). If Kings’ or Sixers’ first-rounder is No. 1 overall, Sixers would instead receive more favorable pick and Celtics would receive less favorable pick." Almost all picks come with some form of protection. – lulu Jan 23 '19 at 21:44
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As a purely abstract matter, the answer is yes. If first round picks were traded without conditions then in the situation you describe the probabilities would be additive since the events are mutually exclusive. But, again, NBA first round picks are almost always traded with conditions. – lulu Jan 23 '19 at 21:47