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Suppose the following (decimal) odds are offered for an upcoming sports event:

  • bookmaker $B_1$ offers $4.2$ if team $X$ wins, $2.0$ if $Y$ wins, and $3.4$ for a draw.

  • bookmaker $B_2$ offers $4.7$ if team $X$ wins, $1.9$ if $Y$ wins, and $3.1$ for a draw.

  • bookmaker $B_3$ offers $4.1$ if team $X$ wins, $1.6$ if $Y$ wins, and $3.7$ for a draw.

I have to figure out how arbitrage can happen, i.e., how we can win money by betting at all three bookmakers. My intuition says that we should choose the highest value for each of the outcomes from all the bookmakers, but I am not sure how much money we would use. I appreciate any guidance.

mandella
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1 Answers1

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You intuition about choosing the bookmaker with the best odds for each outcome is certainly correct. How could it make sense to do otherwise? So you bet $b_1$ with $B_1$ that $Y$ wins, $b_2$ with $B_2$ that $X$ wins, and $B_3$ with $B_3$ on a draw. Presumably, you have a predetermined amount to bet, so we assume $b_1+b_2+b_3=1$ and interpret the $b_i$ as the fraction bet with each book maker.

Now you want to analyze the profit or loss in the case of each of the three outcomes, and choose the $B_i$ to maximize the profit in the worst case. This is predicated on my understanding of the goal is to make money no matter what the outcome.

EDIT

Out of curiosity, I worked out the details, so I might as well post them. We have the following odds $$\begin{matrix} &\text{X}&\text{Y}&\text{Draw}\\ \text{B}_1&4.2&\mathbf{2}&3.4\\ \text{B}_2&\mathbf{4.7}&1.9&3.1\\ \text{B}_3&4.1&1.6&\mathbf{3.7} \end{matrix}$$
where the best odds on each outcome have been bolded.

If we bet $b_i$ with bookmaker $\text{B}_i,\ i=1,2,3$ where we assume $b_1+b_2+b_3=1$ then in order that we not lose money whatever happens, the following conditions must hold. $$\begin{align} -b_1 +4.7b_2 -b_3 &\geq0\tag{1}\\ 2b_1 -b_2 -b_3 &\geq0\tag{2}\\ -b_1 -b_2 +3.7b_3 &\geq0\tag{3} \end{align}$$ Substituting $b_3=1-b_1-b_2$ in $(1)$ and simplifying gives $$b_2\geq{1\over5.7}\approx .1754$$Similarly, substituting in $(2)$ gives $$b_1=\frac13\approx .3333$$ and substituting in $(4)$ gives $$b_1+b_2\leq{37\over47}\iff b_3\geq{10\over47}\approx.2127$$

The sum of the lower bounds comes to $\approx.7215$ so the problem is feasible. If we lay out about $72\%$ of our capital as computed above, we will never lose, and so the problem is how to bet the remaining $28\%$ to best advantage.

Since this is arbitrage, we want our profit to be the same no matter what the outcome. In order to have the same profit if X wins or there is a draw, we equate the left-hand sides of $(1)$ and $(3)$ and we find$$5.7b_2=4.7b_3\tag{4}$$ To ensure the same profit if there is a draw of if Y wins, we equate the left-hand sides of $(2)$ and $(3)$ and find $$3b_1=4.7b_3\tag{5}$$ Comparing $(4)$ and $(5)$ we see that we must have $$b_1=1.9b_2\tag{6}$$ $(4)$ and $(6)$ now give$$b_2\left(1.9+1+{57\over47}\right)=1\implies b_2={470\over1933}\approx.243145 $$so we have $$\boxed{b_1\approx.461976\\b_2\approx.243145\\b_3\approx.294878}$$

You can, and should, verify that no matter what the outcome, the profit is about $ 38.59\%$ of the amount wagered.

In retrospect, I could have simply solved for the bets that would make the profit the same for all outcomes, and then tested whether it was positive. You can recast the solution that way, if you like.

saulspatz
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  • Yes, exactly. However I am not sure how to choose the $b_i$ so that I get a max profit. – mandella May 08 '19 at 17:31
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    @mandella Then edit your question to show us how far you have gotten. As it stands, it seems to indicate that you don't know how to start. – saulspatz May 08 '19 at 17:33
  • I only need the values of $b_i$ which maximize my profit, then it is simple calculation to see how much I get from each. I do not have any formulas to help me so I guess I do not know where to start, if such formulas exist. – mandella May 08 '19 at 17:36
  • @mandella You have this the wrong way around. The $b_i$ are unknowns you have to solve for. In the the discussion I gave, if $X$ wins your profit is $4.7b_2-b_1-b_3$ and you require that this be greater that $0$. That gives you one condition. You can find two others similarly. Since $b_3=1-b_1-b_2$ you can reduce these to requirements on $b_2$ in terms of $b_1.$ – saulspatz May 08 '19 at 17:43
  • So if $Y$ wins then $2b_1-b_2-b_3 \geq 0$ and if there is a draw $3.1b_3-b_1-b_2 \geq 0$, is this correct? – mandella May 11 '19 at 08:15
  • If it's a draw we need $\color{red}{3.7}b_3-b_1-b_2 \geq 0$ – saulspatz May 11 '19 at 11:33
  • Let's suppose that $Y$ wins. Then our profit is about $2 \times 0.47$ which is $0.94$ but this is not greater than $1$? – mandella May 12 '19 at 18:47
  • No, that is not the profit. That is the amount you win on the bet on Y. You have to subtract the amount you lose on the other two bets. And no, it's not greater than $1$. Why should it be? You may not understand how the odds work. If you bet $$1$ at $2$ to $1$ and the horse wins, you win $2$. The bookmaker gives you $$3$. The $$2$ that you won, plus the $$1$ that you originally bet. – saulspatz May 12 '19 at 18:52
  • I thought we are betting $1$ dollar and the $b_i-s$ are the amounts we bet. So I guess I do not understand how you solved this exercise. – mandella May 12 '19 at 18:55
  • @mandella, Yes, we're betting one dollar and the $b_i$ are the amounts bet. Your problem is with computing profit and loss. Read my previous comment again. – saulspatz May 12 '19 at 19:04
  • I read it, but I do not get it. I thought that when we check for $Y$ winning we just calculate the odds $\times$ the amount we bet. But after your comment, is it $0.47+2\times 0.47$? – mandella May 12 '19 at 19:09
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    Yes, that is how much money we have after the race. – saulspatz May 12 '19 at 19:53