Subject in an experiment are told that either a red or a green light will flash. Each subject is to guess which light will flash. The subject is told that the probability of a red light is 0.7, independent of guesses. Assume that the subject is a probability matcher- that is , guesses red with probability .70 and green with probability .30. (i) What is the probability that the subject guesses correctly? (ii) Given that a subject guesses correctly, what is the probability that the light flashed red?
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2So you know that it's a Bayes theorem problem. Have you tried solving it with it? – Matti P. Jun 06 '19 at 11:05
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I guess that .. some mess will come out from the meaning given to "guesses x with probability y" – G Cab Jun 06 '19 at 11:31
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So the guessed color and the color of the light are independently distributet? – denklo Jun 06 '19 at 13:18