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I am trying to measure the impact of the launch of a staged test that occurred in various states over different months.But I am having trouble understanding the way lift is calculated in an existing approach.

Jan 2019 - State A; Feb 2019 - State B; March 2019 - State C

States A, B, C are my test groups, each measured separately against the control group which is rest of US excluding these three states.

I am currently measuring pre period : Three months before Launch; Post Period - Launch Month Till March 2019

Formula used: ((Post Lift % in State A - Pre Lift % in State A) - (Post Lift% in Rest of US - Pre Left% in Rest of US))*(Share of Volume from State A in Q1/Share of Volume from all of US in Q1)

Post Lift % is defined as lift from Jan 2019 through March 2019 vs. LIft from Jan 2018 through March 2018 and pre lift% is Lift from Oct 2018 through DEcember 2018 vs. Oct 2017 vs. December 2017. This period shifts based on Launch Date of the State.

My question is :

A) I don't understand why I would do this: (Share of Volume from State A in Q1/Share of Volume from all of US in Q1)

I tried looking up on the internet and I can only find posts which explain till Lift% without the Share of Volume calculation.

Appreciate your help.

Mnag
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  • what is "share of volume" ? – AgentS Aug 02 '19 at 18:32
  • Share of volume meaning let's say volume is the metric for which we are calculating lift, it is the total volume from State A in Q1 / Total Volume from all of US in Q1. Share is probably not the right word – Mnag Aug 02 '19 at 20:08
  • Will you be using the same formula for states $B$ and $C$ too? – AgentS Aug 02 '19 at 20:12
  • It looks like weighted average to me – AgentS Aug 02 '19 at 20:12
  • Notice :

    (Share of Volume from State A in Q1/Share of Volume from all of US in Q1) + (Share of Volume from State B in Q1/Share of Volume from all of US in Q1) + ... = $1$

    – AgentS Aug 02 '19 at 20:13
  • Yes, I will be using for States B and C as well. – Mnag Aug 02 '19 at 20:36
  • But, that's where I have a problem...I cannot do the same for State B in Q1 because the program launched in State B only In Feb..or Can I? – Mnag Aug 02 '19 at 20:37
  • Since there are 3 months for StateA, 2 months for StateB, and 1 month for StateC, you may do this: Multiply the formula of State A by 3/6, State B by 2/6 and State C by 1/6. – AgentS Aug 02 '19 at 20:44

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