Because, in the basic Collatz algorithm, odds are always transformed into evens (via x=3x+1), and evens are transformed into evens with a probability of .5 (via x=x/2), there will be, on average, 2 divisions (x/4) for every multiplication (x*3). So probability predicts inevitable reduction.
Is the problem then proving there can be no collisions (i.e., internal loops) in test values before 1 is reached?
To try to understand, I've added a second test (only) after dividing an even in which, if the result is odd, I subtract 1 and divide again: i.e., x=(x-1)/2. Now probability predicts 6 divides for each multiplication, and the highest probabilistically descending multiplier is 2^6-1 (63). Here, instead of an average reduction of 3/4 (as per Collatz), it's only 63/64, and one would expect series to be a lot longer. Here's the pseudo-code:
while test>1
if is_even(test)
test = test/2
if is_odd(test)
// could test for 1 here
test=(test-1)/2
endif
else
test=test*63+1
endif
endwhile
I've been running the above algo with huge integers for a few hours now and tested past 14 bits. So far the largest number of iterations has been 1,176,551 for the integer 10581 which reached a 2255-bit intermediary value.
Additional nested odd tests require larger multipliers and result in narrower probability spreads. E.g.:
0 tests (Collatz) : mult = 3, reduces by 3/4
1 test (as here): mult=63, reduces by 63/64
2 tests: mult=16383 (2^14-1), reduces by 16383/16384
3 tests: mult=(2^30-1) ...
I hypothesize that any above variation will eventually reduce any test value to 1 (though some could take longer than the universe will be around).
I assume this (these) extensions are equally un-provable conjectures, but might they shed light on Collatz by providing a broader context?