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$$\pmatrix{\pi_1 & \pi_2 & \pi_3} = \pmatrix{\pi_1 & \pi_2 & \pi_3}\pmatrix{\frac{1}{6} & \frac{4}{6} & \frac{1}{6} \\ \frac{5}{12} & \frac{2}{12} & \frac{5}{12} \\ \frac{1}{6} & \frac{4}{6} & \frac{1}{6} \\}$$

Answer: $$\pi_1=\frac{5}{18}$$ $$\pi_2=\frac{8}{18}$$ $$\pi_3=\frac{5}{18}$$

Could someone please explain how to find these variables.

adam W
  • 5,565

1 Answers1

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The key terms are the Perron-Frobenius theorem and the stable state of a Markov chain. In practice, this vector $\pi$ is found as the eigenvector for the eigenvalue $1$, and is normalized so that the sum of its components is $1$.

Subtract $1$ along the diagonal to get $$B=\pmatrix{-\frac{5}{6} & \frac{4}{6} & \frac{1}{6} \\ \frac{5}{12} & -\frac{10}{12} & \frac{5}{12} \\ \frac{1}{6} & \frac{4}{6} & -\frac{5}{6} }$$ Since we multiply by the matrix on the right, the desired vector is in the kernel of $B^T$. The Scilab command v=kernel(B')' outputs

v  =    0.4682929    0.7492686    0.4682929

This is normalized to have length $1$, but we want the sum of components to be $1$. The command v/sum(v) does the job:

0.2777778    0.4444444    0.2777778 

which is your vector. Of course, with sufficient patience one can do it by hand as well.