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In Sapiens by Yuval Noah Harari, it is mentioned that

Chaotic systems come in two shapes. Level one chaos is chaos that does not react to predictions about it. The weather, for example, is a level one chaotic system... Level two chaos is chaos that reacts to predictions about it, and therefore can never be predicted. Markets, for example, are a level two chaotic system.

In the field of chaos theory, are 'level one' and 'level two' chaotic systems real descriptors? I could not find any information about such labels aside from a few blogposts. Or, did Harari make up his own descriptions and use chaos theory jargon to justify it?

Nico Damascus
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    This is the first time I heard of levels in chaos theory. – Peter Dec 21 '20 at 12:23
  • This is using loose terminology about "chaotic systems". Weather and Markets are apples and oranges. – Somos Dec 21 '20 at 15:00
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    The way I see it, using Harari's definitions, is that markets or the weather can't be categorized as chaotic level 1 or chaotic level 2. To use Harari's example of the political scientists predicting a revolution; whether the chaos (the revolution) reacts to the prediction depends on the action that is taken. If Mubarak took no action the revolution would still take place. In his other example, he states the weather does not react to predictions. However it can react to predictions if action is taken, i.e if people pump chemicals in the atmosphere to change tomorrow's weather. – Lucas Jan 30 '21 at 01:24
  • I think @Lucas 's comment is spot on. What makes a system level 1 or level 2, according to this definition, doesn't seem to be an intrinsic property of the system itself. – M Turgeon Nov 17 '22 at 22:07

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It looks to me as though Harari is confused by the distinction between actual observables and models for the evolution of observables. Typically there are no deterministic models for the real world despite the many models in the form of difference or differential or integral equations.

William Hoover
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