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Say I wanted to predict the number of Software Engineers in a given year that change their job.

The total number of Software Engineers in a given market is readily available (4.4 million in the US), as are retention rates for companies (conservatively, an average of 3 years).

So, an average engineer will change jobs every 3 years or more. It feels like I should be fairly trivially able to project a number of software engineers who change jobs in a given year given this data, but, for the life of me, I don't know how.

Any help would be appreciated.

Abraham P
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1 Answers1

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Comment:

In queueing theory, Little's Formula is $L = \lambda W,$ where $L$ is average number of customers waiting, $\lambda$ is rate of service (customers/time), and $W$ is average service time.

You have $L = 4.4$ million and $W = 3\,$ yrs, so $\lambda = 4.4\; \mathrm{million}/3\, \mathrm{yrs} = 1.47$ million a year.

This is the same as in @JMoravitz's Comment, but with a "Name" put to it. Are you getting ready to study queueing theory?

BruceET
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