Say I wanted to predict the number of Software Engineers in a given year that change their job.
The total number of Software Engineers in a given market is readily available (4.4 million in the US), as are retention rates for companies (conservatively, an average of 3 years).
So, an average engineer will change jobs every 3 years or more. It feels like I should be fairly trivially able to project a number of software engineers who change jobs in a given year given this data, but, for the life of me, I don't know how.
Any help would be appreciated.