6

(Apologies if this is the wrong venue to ask such a question, but I don't understand how to arrive at a solution to this math puzzle).

Three cannons are fighting each other.

Cannon A hits 1/2 of the time. Cannon B hits 1/3 the time. Cannon C hits 1/6 of the time.

Each cannon fires at the current "best" cannon. So B and C will start shooting at A, while A will shoot at B, the next best. Cannons die when they get hit.

Which cannon has the highest probability of survival? Why?

Clarification: B and C will start shooting at A.

JDS
  • 713

3 Answers3

6

The problem can be done by straightforward calculation.

Initially no one is shooting at C, so at some point A or B will be hit. At that point either A and C survive, B and C survive, or C alone survives (if A and B are hit simultaneously).

  1. A and C survive. This occurs when A hits B before B or C hits A. The probability that all three miss on any given turn is $\frac12\cdot\frac23\cdot\frac56=\frac5{18}$, and the probability that A hits and the other two miss on any given turn is also $\frac12\cdot\frac23\cdot\frac56=\frac5{18}$, so this event occurs on turn $n$ with probability $\left(\frac5{18}\right)^n$. The probability that it occurs at all is therefore $$\sum_{n\ge 1}\left(\frac5{18}\right)^n=\frac{\frac5{18}}{1-\frac5{18}}=\frac5{13}\;.$$

  2. B and C survive. This occurs when B or C hits A before A hits B. As before, the probability that all three miss on any given turn is $\frac12\cdot\frac23\cdot\frac56=\frac5{18}$. The probability that neither B nor C hits on a given turn is $\frac23\cdot\frac56=\frac59$, so the probability that A misses and at least one of B and C hits is $\frac12\left(1-\frac59\right)=\frac29$. This event therefore occurs on turn $n$ with probability $$\left(\frac5{18}\right)^{n-1}\left(\frac29\right)\;,$$ and the probability that it occurs at all is $$\frac29\sum_{n\ge 1}\left(\frac5{18}\right)^{n-1}=\frac29\sum_{n\ge 0}\left(\frac5{18}\right)^n=\frac{\frac29}{1-\frac5{18}}=\frac4{13}\;.$$

  3. C alone survives. This occurs when A hits B and, on the same turn, B or C hits A. Since the probability that A hits on the $n$ turn is the same as the probability that A misses, the calculation for this case is identical to that for the previous case, and this case therefore occurs with probability $\frac4{13}$. (Alternatively, of course, one can simply note that the probability must be $1-\frac5{13}-\frac4{13}=\frac4{13}$.)

Now consider the outcome of case (1). At this point A and C are shooting at each other. The probability that both miss on any given turn is $\frac12\cdot\frac56=\frac5{12}$, and the probability that A hits and C misses on any given turn is the same, so A becomes the sole survivor on turn $n$ with probability $\left(\frac5{12}\right)^n$. Should the battle reach this case, then, the probability that A is the sole survivor is

$$\sum_{n\ge 1}\left(\frac5{12}\right)^n=\frac{\frac5{12}}{1-\frac5{12}}=\frac57\;.$$

The probability that A misses and C hits on any given turn is $\frac12\cdot\frac16=\frac1{12}$, so the probability that C becomes the sole survivor on turn $n$ is $\left(\frac5{12}\right)^{n-1}\left(\frac1{12}\right)$, and the overall probability that C becomes the sole survivor, given that the battle reaches this case, is

$$\frac1{12}\sum_{n\ge 1}\left(\frac5{12}\right)^{n-1}=\frac1{12}\sum_{n\ge 0}\left(\frac5{12}\right)^n=\frac{\frac1{12}}{1-\frac5{12}}=\frac17\;.$$

Finally, once this case is reached there is a probability of $1-\frac57-\frac17=\frac17$ that A and C will kill each other, leaving no survivors.

The analysis for case (2) is entirely similar. The probability that B is the sole survivor is

$$\left(\frac13\cdot\frac56\right)\sum_{n\ge 1}\left(\frac23\cdot\frac56\right)^{n-1}=\frac{\frac5{18}}{1-\frac59}=\frac58\;,$$

the probability that C is the sole survivor is

$$\left(\frac23\cdot\frac16\right)\sum_{n\ge 1}\left(\frac23\cdot\frac56\right)^{n-1}=\frac{\frac19}{1-\frac59}=\frac14\;,$$

and the probability that there are no survivors is $1-\frac58-\frac14=\frac18$.

The overall probabilities of survival are therefore

$$\begin{align*} &\text{A:}\quad\frac5{13}\cdot\frac57=\frac{25}{91}\\\\ &\text{B:}\quad\frac4{13}\cdot\frac58=\frac5{26}\\\\ &\text{C:}\quad\frac5{13}\cdot\frac17+\frac4{13}\cdot\frac14+\frac4{13}=\frac{40}{91}\;. \end{align*}$$

As a quick check, the missing $\frac{17}{182}$ should be the probability that none of them survives; since this is

$$\frac5{13}\cdot\frac17+\frac4{13}\cdot\frac18\;,$$

which is indeed $\frac{17}{182}$.

Brian M. Scott
  • 616,228
2

I assume they all fire balls simultaneously. The probability for the different outcomes of the first volley are as then as follows (I will keep my eighteenths unsimplified for simplicity):

1) $A$ is hit: $\frac{1}{3} + \frac{1}{6} - \frac{1}{18} = \frac{8}{18}$

2) $B$ is hit: $\frac{1}{2}$.

And these two are independent, so we get the following odds for who's dead before round 2:

1) $A$ and $B$: $\frac{4}{18}$

2) Just $B$: $\frac{5}{18}$

3) Just $A$: $\frac{4}{18}$

4) None (back to square one): $\frac{5}{18}$.

This means that after the first volley where someone died, it is just as likely that just $A$ died as it is that both $A$ and $B$ died, so $C$ certainly has better odds than $B$ (since $C$ does have some probability of winning a duel between the two). We therefore need to look at $A$'s odds of survival given that $B$ just died.

In $4$ out of $9$ cases, $A$ will have died in the same volley that killed $B$, so $C$ is crowned winner. In $5$ out of the $9$, a duel breaks out. We can now analyze the probabilities of the outcomes of a single volley the same way as before:

1) $C$ dies with probability $\frac{1}{2}$

2) $A$ dies with probability $\frac{1}{6}$

This gives the following odds for the outcome:

1) They both die: $\frac{1}{12}$

2) They both survive: $\frac{5}{12}$

3) Only $A$ survives: $\frac{5}{12}$

4) Only $C$ survives: $\frac{1}{12}$

So, if $B$ is (among) the first to die (which has probability $\frac{9}{13}$), the probability is $\frac{4}{9}$ that $A$ was also killed, and $\frac{5}{9}$ that we have a duel between $A$ and $C$. In this duel, $A$ has $\frac{5}{7}$ chance to come out on top, and $\frac{1}{7}$ chance to come out on bottom. All in all, this gives survival chances of $\frac{9}{13}\cdot\frac{5}{9}\cdot \frac{5}{7} = \frac{25}{91}$ for $A$. For $C$, there is the $\frac{4}{13} = \frac{28}{91}$ chance of winning without any dueling, plus the $\frac{5}{91}$ for winning by duel against $A$, and similarily, $\frac{1}{13} = \frac{7}{91}$ for winning by duelling against $B$, and we clearly see who is most often the winner here.

Arthur
  • 199,419
0

A has the greatest chance of survival.

Consider the three possible scenarios for the first round:

On the first trial, define $a$ as the probability that A gets knocked out, $b$ is the probability that B gets knocked out, and $c$ is the probability that C gets knocked out.

Since both B and C are firing at A, the probability of a getting knocked out is: $$a=\frac{1}{3}+\frac{1}{6}=\frac{1}{2}$$

Only A is firing at B, so the probability of B getting knocked out is: $$b=\frac{1}{2}$$

No one is firing at C, so there is no chance of C being knocked out in the first round: $$c=0$$

The probability of A or B being knocked out first is therefore even.


Now on the second round, there are one of two possibilities: A and C are left to duel, or B and C are left to duel.

Between A and C, the probability of A defeating C is $\frac{\frac{1}{2}}{\frac{1}{2}+\frac{1}{6}}=0.75$, and the probability of C defeating A is $0.25$.

Between B and C, the probability of B defeating C is $\frac{\frac{1}{3}}{\frac{1}{3}+\frac{1}{6}}=\frac{2}{3}$, and the probability of C defeating B is $\frac{1}{3}$.


Finally, assess the total probability of victory for each cannon, using the rule of product:

Probability of A winning: $0.75*0.5=0.375$

Probability of B winning: $\frac{2}{3}*0.5=\frac{1}{3}$

Probability of C winning: $0.25*0.5+\frac{1}{3}*0.5\approx0.2917$

So it's close, but A has the greatest chance of survivial.

  • ZettaSuro. That's true PROVIDED that A makes it to the second round. That probability is, as you stated 1/2 but C moves on to the second round no matter what. What is the survival rate for C? (meaning the sum of probability that C beats A plus C beats B) – imranfat Jun 08 '13 at 00:40
  • @imranfat I edited, and it just so happened that A still has the greatest chance of survival, but thank you for pointing that out. – rurouniwallace Jun 08 '13 at 00:55
  • @ZettaSuro What if in the first round, each cannon misses? Shouldn't there be an infinite (converging) series until one of the cannons gets hit? – Adriano Jun 08 '13 at 03:03
  • The first claim, that A gets knocked out on the first round is not correct. B and C could both hit, which you have double counted. It is really $\frac 13 + \frac 16 - \frac 13 \cdot \frac 16 = \frac 49$ – Ross Millikan Jun 08 '13 at 03:03