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I have troubles interpreting this paragraph in an introduction to Stationarity:

A time series {Yt} is said to be stationary if for every integer m, the set of variables Yt1, Yt2, ..., Ytm depends only on the distance between the times t1, t2, ..., tm, rather than on their actual values. So a stationary process {Yt} tends to behave in a homogeneous manner as it moves through time. The means and variances of the Yt are the same for all t, that is, E(Yt) = μ and Var(Yt) = σ² are constant, for all t.

In E(Yt) and Var(Yt), does Yt refer to the process or, or to a single observation of it, or to something else ?

Then the paragraph then goes with

So we may express the autocovariance function as
Cov(Yt,Yt-s) = E[(Yt - μ)(Yt-1 - μ)]

Here, are Yt and Yt-s referring to single observations of the process, or to something else ?

1 Answers1

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The time series is $Y$, not $Y_t$ or any $Y_{t_1},Y_{t_2}$.
However, one usually defines a time series by the following notations :$(Y_t, t \in \mathbb{N})$, $(Y_t, t \in \mathbb{Z})$.
The reason why they do that is that they want to highlight the fact that a time series is a collection of random variables indexed by some set. In the previous examples, those random variables are indexed by $\mathbb{N}$ and $\mathbb{Z}$.
Also, by that manner, they want to be clear on how they will call out the value at specific instants. Because, there usually are many ways to call out point observations. For example, for a time series $Y$, its observation at the instant $t$ may also be denoted by $Y^t, Y(t),$ etc.
Thirdly, and perhaps, the most common reason is that it is just a symbol convention. Probabilists like to save the majuscule letters for real random variables, but not any other kind of random elements. Only writing $Y$ for a time series maybe lead to confusion at some points.
Finally, in some lazy writings (or just because authors want to get rid of some unimportant details), one may just write $(Y_t)$ for their time series. Nevertheless, what they mean by $(Y_t)$ is always $(Y_t, t \in T)$ for some set $T$.

  • Thank you, this makes sense. So $Y_t$ in $E(Y_t)$ and $Var(Y_t)$ refers to the series. Is $Y_{t-s}$ in $Cov(Y_t,Y_{t-s})$ a translation of the series ? – Arnaud Le Blanc Jun 18 '21 at 18:25
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    $Y_t$ in $E(Y_t), \text{Var}(Y_t)$ are single observations. The parenthesis there are for the expectation and the variance, not $Y_t$. $Y_{y-s}$ is the observation of time series at the instant $t-s$. – Paresseux Nguyen Jun 18 '21 at 19:02
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    Notations may be confusing. You may just note that the notation $(Y_t)$ for a time series is mainly used in text, otherwise $Y_t$ is single observation. – Paresseux Nguyen Jun 18 '21 at 19:03