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I'd assume there's a few methods on how to weight soccer ability between different leagues but when I asked for the maths behind it in a different websites forum, I was basically just told "It's to do with the elo rankings". Which didn't really help me. So i've come here to ask to see if any help could be given.

So I'm going to ask my question based on a real life recent transfer, and since I assume it probably is weighted on the elo rankings like I was told, I'll include their elo ranking numbers. I'm mainly interested on the 'goals scored' metrics.

Patson Daka to Leicester City Football Club from RB Salzburg

Patson Daka played for RB Salzburg in a league with an ELO Ranking of 1466. He's moved to Leicester City in the Premier League which is a league with an ELO Ranking of 1780.

For Salzburg last season he scored 27 goals in 28 games. Based on the goal return for a league with a ranking of 1466. How would I weight this to determine how many goals he should score in a league with a ranking of 1780?

I might be in completely the wrong place here and I may have been told wrong information regarding weighting being linked to elo rankings. If that is the case would anybody who knows about this topic be able to add where I should look?
Thanks.

JayRSP
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  • If the Austrian league is only a fraction of the difficulty of the Premier league, given by the ELO rankings, then perhaps the expected goals scored (GS) in the Premier League (PL) can be found by taking the ratio of the ELO ranking of the Austrian Bundesliga to the Premier League and multiplying the goals scored for RB Salzburg i.e $$\mathbb{E}[\text{GS PL}] = \frac{1466}{1780} \cdot 27 \approx 22$$ – Matthew Cassell Aug 09 '21 at 04:20
  • That's great thank you. Makes a lot of sense! – JayRSP Aug 09 '21 at 04:33

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