Let $x_1,\dots, x_n \geq 0$ be a sequence of numbers such that $\sum_{i=1}^n x_i = 1$. For every $k \geq 1$, I conjecture (and need to prove) that $$ \frac{\sum_{1\leq i\neq j\leq n} x_i x_j \left( (1-x_i-x_j)^{k-1}- (1-x_i)^k(1-x_j)^k\right)}{\sum_{i=1}^n x_i \left(1-(1-x_i)^k\right)} \leq \frac{C}{k} $$ where $C>0$ is some absolute constant, which I suspect can be taken to be $C=2$.
I don't really know how to handle this elegantly, or even how to handle it at all. I'd be happy with any proof, but a short one would be appreciated. It's one of these statements which seems to scream for a nice "convexity" or "symmetry" or other "beautiful rabbit out of hat" argument, but any proof at all (or counterexample -- though that'd be quite annoying) would be appreciated.
The "natural" case where all $x_i$ are either 0 or some value $1/m$ (i.e., $x_1=\dots=x_m=1/m$, and $x_{m+1}=\dots=x_n=0$) has an upper bound with a closed form $$ k\frac{(1-\frac{2}{m})^{k-1}-(1-\frac{1}{m})^{2k}}{1-(1-\frac{1}{m})^k} \leq 2 $$ which supports the conjecture. I suspect this is the worst case, but am not sure how to formally argue it.
https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/439649/are-elementary-symmetric-polynomials-concave-on-probability-distributions
– nichehole Aug 31 '21 at 16:01