This is a very rough engineering approach to the problem. Your relations may be written as
$$\dfrac{\Delta_{t+1}-\Delta_{t}}{(t+1)-(t)} = -\left(\frac{1}{t+1}\right)\Delta_t + \left(\frac{1}{t+1}\right)^2 D_t, \quad t=1,2,\dots$$
where
$$D_t = \left(2-\frac{1}{t+1}\right) \sum_{n=1}^t \left( \frac{t+1}{n+1} \right)^2 0.5^{t-n+1}, \quad t=1,2,\dots$$
For large values of $t\gg 1$, we can write $t+1\approx t,$ and on dropping the suffixes on $\Delta $ and $D$, the equations can be written as
$$\dfrac{\rm d \Delta}{dt} = -\dfrac{\Delta}{t} + \dfrac{D}{t^2}, $$ and
$$ D = 2t^2 \sum_{n=1}^t \left( \dfrac{1}{n+1}\right)^2 \left(\dfrac{1}{2}\right)^{t-n+1}. $$
The last term in $D$ is approximately $ 2t^2 /2t^2 \sim\mathcal {O}(1)$, and assuming that $D\sim\mathcal {O}(1),$ the differential equation for $\Delta$ becomes
$$\dfrac{\rm d \Delta}{dt} = -\dfrac{\Delta}{t} + \dfrac{D}{t^2},\quad \text{or} \quad\dfrac{\rm d \Delta}{\Delta} = -\dfrac{{\rm d} t}{t} + \dfrac{D\,{\rm d}t}{t^2\Delta }.$$
If we now make use of your hunch, namely that $\dfrac{t\Delta}{D}\sim \log(t)$,
then the integration yields
$$\log(\Delta)\sim-\log(t)+\int \dfrac{{\rm d}t}{t\log(t)}, $$
or
$$\log(t\Delta)\sim \log(\log(t))\quad\text{or}\quad t\Delta\sim \log(t).$$
Since $D \sim\mathcal {O}(1), $ we finally arrive at
$$ \dfrac{t\Delta}{D}\sim \log(t). $$
So your hunch yields a result, which in itself, is self-consistent with the approximate differential equations for $t\gg 1.$
The approximation that $D \sim\mathcal {O}(1)$ might need a closer inspection, since I only looked at the last term.