Given two (1-)categories $\mathcal{C}, \mathcal{D}$, and given the 0-category (class) of funtors $\mathcal{C} \to \mathcal{D}$, denoted $Func(\mathcal{C} \to \mathcal{D})$, let's say we want to make some choice of (1-)category denoted $[[\mathcal{C}, \mathcal{D}]]$ such that $Ob([[\mathcal{C}, \mathcal{D}]]) = Func(\mathcal{C} \to \mathcal{D})$.
Usually we choose $[[\mathcal{C}, \mathcal{D}]]$ such that $Mor([[\mathcal{C}, \mathcal{D}]])$ are natural transformations. But imagine we're from a universe where no one has discovered the concept of natural transformation, and so we start only with the definitions of category and functor.
To reflect the structure of $Ob([[\mathcal{C}, \mathcal{D}]]) = Func(\mathcal{C} \to \mathcal{D})$, whose elements act on both objects and morphisms of $\mathcal{C}$, we can ask that for every $\eta \in Mor([[\mathcal{C}, \mathcal{D}]])$, with $\eta: F \to G$ for some functors $F, G \in Func(\mathcal{C} \to \mathcal{D})$, one has that $\eta$ sends every object (0-morphism) $c$ of $\mathcal{C}$ to a (1-)morphism $h:F(c) \to G(c)$, $h \in Mor(\mathcal{D})$ and every (1-)morphism $f: X \to Y$ of $\mathcal{C}$ to a morphism of morphisms ("2-morphism") $F(f) \to G(f)$, and to do so functorially.
So to get a choice of $Mor([[\mathcal{C}, \mathcal{D}]])$, we choose some category $Arr(\mathcal{D})$ ("arrows of $\mathcal{D}$") such that $Ob(Arr(\mathcal{D})) = Mor(\mathcal{D})$, and then choose elements of $Mor([[\mathcal{C}, \mathcal{D}]])$ to be functors $\mathcal{C} \to Arr(\mathcal{D})$ satisfying the above consistency conditions.
In other words, if we accept the above requirement, then to make some choice of definition for a "functor category" $[[\mathcal{C}, \mathcal{D}]]$, it suffices to make a choice of definition of "category whose objects are morphisms in $\mathcal{D}$".
Question: What is so special about the standard choice of $Arr(\mathcal{D})$, where the morphisms (of morphisms) are commutative squares in $\mathcal{D}$?
Can we explain the "specialness" without invoking natural transformations? (To avoid circular justification, because we are trying to use this choice to justify the choice of natural transformations as morphisms between functors.)
The choice of commutative squares as "morphisms of morphisms in $\mathcal{D}$" leads to (in the manner described above) the standard definition of functor category whose morphisms are natural transformations.
Note that the objects of $Arr(\mathcal{D})$ can be identified with functors $\mathbb{2} \to \mathcal{D}$ (where $\mathbb{2}$ denotes the "walking arrow category". So an answer to this question that would not be accepted is, "the morphisms of 'the' functor category $[[\mathbb{2}, \mathcal{D}]]$ work out to be commutative squares", because that answer a priori assumes that the morphisms we should choose for $[[\mathbb{2}, \mathcal{D}]]$ are natural transformations.
On the plus side, the above argument shows that a converse construction also holds, i.e. that to make a choice of definition of "category whose objects are morphisms in $\mathcal{D}$", it suffices to make a choice of definition of functor category $[[\mathcal{C}, \mathcal{D}]]$ for arbitrary $\mathcal{C}$ (and in particular $\mathcal{C} = \mathbb{2}$).
Note: For example, if we choose the morphisms of $Arr(\mathcal{D})$/$[[\mathbb{2}, \mathcal{D}]]$ to be invertible commutative squares, we get natural isomorphisms (as opposed to arbitrary natural transformations) as our morphisms of functors (and a groupoidal version of standard functor categories). Similarly, if we choose the morphisms of $Arr(\mathcal{D})$/$[[\mathbb{2}, \mathcal{D}]]$ to be the dual of the standard choice, then we should get (I think) contravariant natural transformations. So the standard choice is not the only consistent choice.
This question is long, so I've put my two guesses so far (defining whiskerings, making $Cat$ Cartesian closed) as a community wiki "answer" below. Related questions: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)