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We have an office world cup bet where each person guesses the team that finishes 1st and 2nd from their qualifying group. E.g.

  • A1: Brazil
  • A2: Mexico
  • B1: Netherlands etc...

You get a point for every correct guess. The person with the most points wins.

My question is, if you selected each guess at random what is the expected number of points you would get?

There are 8 groups, each with 4 teams; 2 guesses per team -> so the maximum points is 16. You can't guess the same team for 2 guesses. I.e. you couldn't guess Brazil to come 1st and 2nd in their group.

harryg
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4 Answers4

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For each group you have $24$ possible guesses, and the number of points that you can get is $0$-$2$:

  • For guessing $1234$ you get $2$ points
  • For guessing $1243$ you get $2$ points
  • For guessing $1324$ you get $1$ point
  • For guessing $1342$ you get $1$ point
  • For guessing $1423$ you get $1$ point
  • For guessing $1432$ you get $1$ point
  • For guessing $2134$ you get $0$ points
  • For guessing $2143$ you get $0$ points
  • For guessing $2314$ you get $0$ points
  • For guessing $2341$ you get $0$ points
  • For guessing $2413$ you get $0$ points
  • For guessing $2431$ you get $0$ points
  • For guessing $3124$ you get $0$ points
  • For guessing $3142$ you get $0$ points
  • For guessing $3214$ you get $1$ point
  • For guessing $3241$ you get $1$ point
  • For guessing $3412$ you get $0$ points
  • For guessing $3421$ you get $0$ points
  • For guessing $4123$ you get $0$ points
  • For guessing $4132$ you get $0$ points
  • For guessing $4213$ you get $1$ point
  • For guessing $4231$ you get $1$ point
  • For guessing $4312$ you get $0$ points
  • For guessing $4321$ you get $0$ points

So the expected (average) number of points that you will get for each group is:

$$0\cdot\frac{14}{24}+1\cdot\frac{8}{24}+2\cdot\frac{2}{24}=\frac{12}{24}=\frac{1}{2}$$

Given $8$ independent groups, the expected number of points that you will get is:

$$8\cdot\frac{1}{2}=4$$

barak manos
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    To simplify your calculation using linearity of expectation: your expected number of points for 1st place is $1/4$, and the same for 2nd place; then $1/4+1/4 = 1/2$. – Théophile Jun 17 '14 at 14:43
  • @Théophile: Thanks, but I do not understand what you mean by "number of points for 1st/2nd place", as you get points for correct guesses (not for "places"). The expected number of points for $1$ correct guess is $\frac{8}{24}$ and the expected number of points for $2$ correct guesses is $\frac{2}{24}$. – barak manos Jun 17 '14 at 15:37
  • What I mean is that $1/4$ of the time, you will correctly guess that Team 1 will come in first. Observe that the first 6 of the 24 permutations make this correct guess, and $6/24 = 1/4$. Similarly, 6 of the 24 permutations have 2 in the second place. – Théophile Jun 17 '14 at 15:56
  • @Théophile: That does not help in calculating the expected number of points, since it depends on the number of correct guesses and not on your permutation-counting. In addition, please note that $2$ of these permutations are common to both cases. Your description implies that your calculation of $\frac{1}{2}$ happens to match the correct answer just by coincidence. – barak manos Jun 17 '14 at 16:29
  • It is not coincidence, it is the result of linearity of expectation. It does not matter whether the events are dependent or not. Try doing the same calculation when there are 100 teams in a group and you're trying to guess the top 50; I predict that the number of expected points is $50 \cdot {1 \over 100} = {1 \over 2}$. – Théophile Jun 18 '14 at 05:39
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There are $4! = 24$ ways to arrange the ordering of the groups. For any winner/runner-up pairing, there are two ways it may occur. This means that at random, you have $\frac{2}{24} = \frac{1}{12}$ probability of getting it right.

Another way of looking at it is there are 4 choices for the winner, and consequently 3 choices for the runner-up (or vice-versa). Therefore there is a $\frac14 \cdot \frac13 = \frac{1}{12}$ chance you will pick both right randomly.

But, we must also independently consider the cases where you get only one answer right.

In this case, suppose you pick the winner right. There are 6 such ways to do that, but two of them, as we have noticed, also involve picking the runner-up correctly. As such, there are 4 ways to pick the winner right but not the runner-up, and vice versa. So this has a $\frac{4}{24} = \frac{1}{6}$ chance of happening.

The expected value of a single group is computed using the expected value formula:

$$\begin{align*}E[G_i] &= \underbrace{\frac{1}{12} \cdot 2}_{\textrm{picking both correctly}} + \underbrace{\frac{1}{6} \cdot 1}_{\textrm{picking only winner correctly}} + \underbrace{\frac{1}{6} \cdot 1}_{\textrm{picking only runner-up correctly}} \\ &= \frac16 + \frac16 + \frac16 \\ &= \frac12 \end{align*}$$

Since expectation is linear,

$$E\left[ \sum_{i=i}^8 G_i\right] = \sum_{i=1}^8 E[G_i] = \sum_{i=1}^8 \frac12 = 8\cdot \frac12 = 4.$$


Suppose we made the pool more interesting, and we gave 2 points for picking the winner, and 1 for the runner up. Then we can use this approach with only trivial modification:

$$\begin{align*}E[G_i] &= \underbrace{\frac{1}{12} \cdot 3}_{\textrm{picking both correctly}} + \underbrace{\frac{1}{6} \cdot 2}_{\textrm{picking only winner correctly}} + \underbrace{\frac{1}{6} \cdot 1}_{\textrm{picking only runner-up correctly}} \\ &= \frac14 + \frac13 +\frac16 \\ &= \frac34\\ E\left[\sum G_i\right] &= 8\cdot \frac34 \\ &= 6. \end{align*}$$

Emily
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If the group competition is modeled by picking two balls without replacement from an urn with four balls, then each pick you make has 1/4 chance of a point. So you'd expect to earn 4 points.

Ned
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Observe that you have a 1 in 4 chance of correctly guessing team A1, since there are 4 teams to choose from. Similarly, you have a 1 in 4 chance of correctly guessing A2. In other words, you expect your guesses for A1 and A2 to each contribute $1 \over 4$ points to your total points.

By linearity of expectation, your expected number of points is then ${1 \over 4} + {1 \over 4} = {1 \over 2}$. For 8 groups in total, you can expect $8 \cdot {1 \over 2} = 4$ points.

You don't need to make the calculation more complicated than this. For instance, it isn't necessary to consider the cases where you get A1 right but A2 wrong, or both right, etc. This is precisely because expectation is linear and it doesn't matter whether the events in question are dependent or independent.

There is a well-known puzzle similar to yours: $n$ ladies take their umbrellas to a party, and then take one at random upon leaving. What is the expected number of ladies who end up with their own umbrella? By linearity of expectation, $n \cdot {1 \over n} = 1$.

Théophile
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  • Let me add that you can also use the same reasoning to deal with variations such as the one suggested by Arkamis. If guessing first place gets you 2 points, then you can expect to win $2 \cdot \frac{1}{4} + 1 \cdot \frac{1}{4} = \frac{3}{4}$ points per group; for 8 groups, this gives $8 \cdot \frac{3}{4} = 6$ expected points. – Théophile Jun 18 '14 at 17:22