Questions tagged [markov-chains]

Stochastic processes (with either discrete or continuous time dependence) on a discrete (finite or countably infinite) state space in which the distribution of the next state depends only on the current state. For Markov processes on continuous state spaces please use (markov-process) instead.

A Markov chain is a stochastic process on a discrete (finite or countably infinite) space in which the distribution of the next state depends only on the current state. These objects show up in probability and computer science both in discrete-time and continuous-time models. For Markov processes on continuous spaces please use .

A discrete-time Markov chain is a sequence of random variables $\{X_n\}_{n\geq1}$ with the Markov property, namely that the probability of moving to the next state depends only on the present state and not on the previous states, i.e. $$\mathbb P(X_{n+1}=x\mid X_{1}=x_{1},X_{2}=x_{2},\ldots ,X_{n}=x_{n})=\mathbb P(X_{n+1}=x\mid X_{n}=x_{n}),$$ if both conditional probabilities are well defined, i.e. if $\mathbb P(X_{1}=x_{1},\ldots ,X_{n}=x_{n})>0.$

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Gauss-Seidel Iteration for Markov chain's steady state calculation

I try to find the stationary vector of the Markov chain by the relaxation scheme, induced to Gauss-Seidel iteration method. Hereinafter I follow Stewart W. J. (2000). Numerical Methods for Computing Stationary Distributions of Finite Irreducible…
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Markov chain periodicity

Can a Markov chain have 5 states, one open and one closed class and all the states be periodic (e.g. period 2)? I tried the following: https://www.dropbox.com/s/v818oqlizaci23m/Untitled.png?dl=0 but I have doubts for the transient state. If it will…
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Model Complexity for higher order markov model

I do not understand why is there an increase in parameters when moving from first to second order markov model For example considering a feature space of (a - z) For first order markov model, the parameters would be (a - z) However, for second…
aceminer
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Simple or Strong Markov Property when conditioning on value of stopping time?

Suppose I have a discrete-time Markov Chain $(X_n)_{n \geq 0}$ with the hitting time $H_x:= \inf \{n \geq 0 \colon X_n = x\}$ for some $x \in E$, where $E$ is a countable state space. Consider now $E[1(H_x < \infty) f(X_n)]$ and suppose that we…
user136457
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Transition matrix in Markov's chain

I'm trying to find the probability transition matrix in this Markov's chain problem. Three black and three white balls are distributed between two polls, in a way that each poll contains three balls. In each iteration one ball is extracted from…
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Markov chain: Sunny or raining?

Suppose that the probability that it rain today is $p=0.3$ if neither of the last two days was rainy, but $0.6$ if at least one of the last two days was rainy. Let the wether at the $n^{th}$ day, $W_n$, be $R$ for rain and $S$ for sunny. $W_n$ is…
idm
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How to calculate steps of a Markov chain with an unknown probability?

I have the matrix: A B C A 0.80 0.10 0.10 B 0.2 0.75 0.05 C 0.10 0.10 0.80 They ask me: if $ A $ is 40% right now, what's the probability of $A$ after two passes? I proposed solving as $$ \left( \begin{array}{ccc}0.4 & b &…
jleeothon
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Practical Way to Detect a Markov Chain is Regular Given the Transition Matrix

I understand that a Markov Chain is reducible if, given its transition matrix $P$, there exists $n$ such that every element of $P^n$ is greater than 0. However, I am wondering that if there is an fast and practical way to detect a Markov chain is…
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Markov chain for two players with two coins

Two players A and B toss two fair coins independently. Whoever gets the smaller number of heads will pay that many dollars to the other player. For example, if player A tosses two coins and gets 2 heads, but player B tosses two coins and gets only…
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Why so complicated to show that $P_j(t(i)<\infty)=1$?

Let $(X_n)_{n\in\mathbb{N}_0}$ be an irreducible and recurrent Markov chain with state space $E$ and transition matrix $P$. For an $i\in E$ let $t(i)$ denote the random variable $t(i)\colon\Omega\to\mathbb{N}\cup\left\{+\infty\right\},…
Salamo
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Show $P(X(t)=0 | X_{0}=2)= P(X(t)=0 | X_{0}=1)^{2}$

Question: Let $X(t)$ be a continuous-time Markov chain on all non-negative integers with generator matrix $Q$ having for all $i\geq 0:$ $$ q_{i,i}=-i(\lambda +\mu ) \qquad q_{i,i+1}=\lambda i \qquad q_{i,i-1}=\mu i $$ (this last rate does not have…
Kasper
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Does the function of a random variable have the same transition matrix as the variable itself?

If I have a variable X, that follows a Markov Chain with a transition density $\rho(X)$ does a function of that variable f(X) have the same density or is there a one to one mapping to the density of f(X) from $\rho(X)$?
Drew
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Markov Chains (State transitions)

I was wondering which part I am misunderstanding about the individual-by-individual updating scheme from the book of Jackson M. (Social and Economic Networks, 2008) . The full transition matrix in the book is written…
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Did I show correctly that $0$ is null recurrent or did I produce nonsense?

Suppose that you have a Markov chain with state space $E$ containing $0$. Assume that $$ p_{00}^{(2n)}=\binom{2n}{n}\left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{2n-1}~~~\text{ and }~~~p_{00}^{(2n-1)}=0~~~\text{ for }n\in\mathbb{N}. $$ Is $0$ transient,…
mathfemi
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Is it possible to compute these probabilities concerning a 6-digit password using theory of Markov chains?

Consider the situation of decoding a 6-digit password that consists of the symbols A to Z and 0 to 9, where all possible combinations are tried randomly and uniformly. Consider the following decoding method: At first a combination is chosen…
Salamo
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