For questions regarding formal decision problems. In contrast, questions involving strategic aspects (where the solution depends on the behavior of others) are discussed in game theory.
Questions tagged [decision-theory]
274 questions
14
votes
3 answers
Can I use the "Secretary Problem" to find the worst candidate, too?
As you know, we use the "Secretary Problem" to choose the single best candidate. Now I would like to know can we use this rule to find the worst candidate, too? If yes, how to accomplish this?
11
votes
2 answers
How to use the 1/e law of best choice?
Caution: I'm not a mathematician, but I remember some of what I learned in college.
I was reading about the Secretary Problem on Wikipedia, essentially about determining the optimal moment to stop evaluating new options. I'm interested in the…
neilk
- 213
- 1
- 5
6
votes
1 answer
Transferable belief model, Pignistic probability, pseudo-science?
I have to review an article for a conference. This article deals with Transferable belief model and Pignistic probability, concepts that were previously unknown to me (CS background).
I dived into these "theories" and all this came to me as a…
Dju
- 61
5
votes
1 answer
Gittins Index for a simple example
Everything I can find on the Gittins Index is extremely in depth and abstract with almost no examples. I have spent hours digging through academic papers, lecture notes, and Wikipedia sources. I understand the Gittins Index conceptually, but I would…
Jeff Hykin
- 226
5
votes
2 answers
How to group people based on their choices? What algorithms are available?
For example I have eight kids,
A,B,C,D,E,F,G,H
If I ask them to go into groups of two, their choices are
A->B
B->C
C->B
D->B
E->A
F->A
G->H
H->C
How to make sure they get their choices as much as possible?
Or similarly, to get into groups of…
Chen Stats Yu
- 293
3
votes
1 answer
Minimizing the expected loss when there is a general loss matrix
This question is related to question 1.23 of "Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning" by Bishop.
The question asks "Derive the criterion for minimizing the expected loss when there is a general loss matrix and general prior probabilities for the…
Suzu Hirose
- 11,660
2
votes
1 answer
Modeling a multiple criteria decision problem
Sorry for the generic-sounding title.
I am currently tasked to solve a decision problem. Currently there are two factors that I must consider before making the decision.
Suppose a customer walks into a building to do whatever business he needs to…
Jeffrey04
- 143
2
votes
1 answer
Decision theory - Example
Your wealth is $€14400$. If you have no accident, your wealth remains unchanged, but if you do, you need to pay $€4400$ to cover medical costs. If you have an accident, the insurance reimburses the medical costs but you need to pay a premium…
jmccc
- 301
1
vote
0 answers
Decision Tree and rank?
Consider all strictly decreasing functions from $\{1,2,3,4\}$ to $\{1,2,3,4,5,6\}$, or in other words, all functions defined on $\{1,2,3,4\}$ such that $f(1)>f(2)>f(3)>f(4)$. Draw a decision tree so that the leaves are in lexicographical order when…
1
vote
1 answer
Expected Utility
I am confused by something regarding expected utility calculation.
When we are calculating the expected utility where 2 positive outcomes can happen at the same time such as the example below:
We win 50 with probability of 0.3
We win 100 with…
Miles-can
- 15
1
vote
2 answers
What is the most common decision making math model?
I have been told that there are psychological math model to make decision. I want to know what is it and how it work.
Marco
- 250
1
vote
0 answers
Decision Analysis on game - Y vs L uncover pattern
I am trying to understand the logic of the community in choosing a specfic strategy to maximize profit in a game. The game can be described as follows:
Every ticket has nine spaces, with a number which is uniformly randomly distributed among the 9…
QHZ
- 73
1
vote
1 answer
Mass calculation in Dempster–Shafer theory
How is mass calculated in example 2: Signal-light problem. I understand the mass of the subsets are added, i.e.
m(red or yellow)=mass(red)+mass(yellow)=0.35+0.25=0.6
m(red or green)=mass(red)+mass(green)=0.35+0.15=0.5
m(yellow or…
AK16
- 113
1
vote
0 answers
Explaining daily life event using prospect theory
I am new to decision theory and currently I am reading the book 'Making Better Decisions: Decision Theory in Practice' by Itzhak Gilboa. I am fascinated by the discussion of utility function and risk aversion. After reading the corresponding…
Nighty
- 2,152
1
vote
1 answer
Max Expected Utility
I need help calculating the max expected utility. I want to LEARN this stuff, so if I can be so picky please give some explanation with answers (just an answer won't do me any good).
Let P(x) = 0.2 for a Boolean Random Variable X.
Assume that you…
CamHart
- 161