Questions tagged [expected-value]

Questions about the expected value of a random variable.

The average value of a randomly chosen quantity is its expectation or expected value. For example, the expected value of the number you get when you roll a fair 6-sided dice is 3.5.

In general, if $X$ is a random variable defined on a probability $(\Omega, \Sigma, P)$, then the expected value of $X$, denoted by $E[X], \langle X \rangle,$ or $\bar{X}$ is defined as the Lebegue integral

$$E[X]= \int_{\Omega} X(\omega) dP(\omega)$$

The expected value is often the first and most important thing you want to know about a random variable. For example, in a betting game, the best strategy is often the one that maximizes the expected value of the amount you win.

This tag is for questions about:

  • Computing the expected value in a specific situation.
  • Understanding the properties of expected values, such as Markov's inequality or linearity of expectation.
  • Proving theorems about the expected value of abstract random variables.
  • Understanding what the expected value means and what it tells you about a random variable.
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Calculating expectation value based on previous expectation value - why exactly is it wrong?

I was trying to solve this question. The following is a modified shorter question: You have $n$ blocks (numbered 1 through n) with positive integral weights $w_1, w_2, \ldots, w_n$. You are also given integers $a_1$ through $a_n$, where $a_i$ is 1…
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Expected value of randomly answered questions

I am a little bit confused concerning the following problem. Lets suppose you have 10 multiple choice questions which can be ticked as true or false. For each correctly crossed answer you receive $+1$ point otherwise you get $-1$ point. It is not…
Philipp
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Injectivity of expectation

In a proof I read recently, I saw the author conclude that $X$ is an Exp(1) random variable after finding $E(X^{k}) = k!$. Why and when is this allowed (i.e. when can I conclude that some r.v. follows a distribution whose expectation I recognize)?…
user715724
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Is the expected value independent of the number of repetitions?

I have this statement: Some game of throw a dice with two equiprobable sides, with the number $1$ and $2$. If you get $1$ You win $200\$$ and if you get $2$ you lose $100\$$, after $100$ launches what value is expected to win? My attempt…
ESCM
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Expected Income Question

An urn contains equal number of green and red balls. Suppose you are playing the following game. You draw one ball at random from the urn and note its colour. The ball is then placed back in the urn, and the selection process is repeated. Each time…
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What does $d \mathbb{P}(\omega)$ mean in expectation of r.v. $f$?

What does $d \mathbb{P}(\omega)$ mean in expectation of r.v. $f$? $$\mathbb{E} f = \int_{\Omega} f(\omega) d \mathbb{P}(\omega)$$ Yes sure it's some "infinitesimal", but should this mean that $\mathbb{P}(\omega)$ is a variable of $f$? Since in…
mavavilj
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Expected number of steps in a 1D random walk with reflecting edges

Assume there is a row of $k$ tiles. A creature (monkey in some situations, ant in others, frog in others) lies on tile $a$. There is a 50% probability that the creature jumps to tile $a-1$ and a 50% probability that the creature jumps to tile $a+1$,…
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Expectation of the stochastic process

Consider the following stochastic process. $X(t)=Y(t-1)$ where $Y(t-1)\sim Normal(X(t-1)+1,\sigma^2)$ $X(0)=1$ Now I am interested in the $E[X(n)]$. Intuitively, I think $E[X(n)]$ is equal to $n$. Is this the correct answer? If it is, how can I…
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Expected Value Question - SMT 2020

If $a$ is picked randomly in the range $(\frac{1}{4}, \frac{3}{4})$ and $b$ is chosen such that $$\int_{a}^{b} \frac{1}{x^2}dx = 1,$$ compute the expected value of $(b −…
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Expected Number of Dice Showing Same Number As Sixth One

Source: HMMT November 2023 Guts Round Problem 8 Six standard fair six-sided dice are rolled and arranged in a row at random. Compute the expected number of dice showing the same number as the sixth die in the row. I do not understand what the point…
Benji
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Must the mean of a product of two random variable with positive mean positive?

I have a form like X(X+Y-1) for X and Y independent random variables. I believe I can show $E[X+Y-1]>0$ and $E[X]>0$. Am I allowed to conclude that also $E[X(X+Y-1)]>0$? I have heard a fkg inequality, but don't know if it can be used in this…
toki
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Is an expectation over two variables equivalent to the expectation over the first of the expectation over the second?

My question is in regards to this surrogate advantage function used in the Trust Region Policy Optimization (TRPO) reinforcement learning algorithm. $${L}(\theta_k, \theta) = \mathop{\mathbb{E}}_{s,a \sim \pi_{\theta_k}}{…
Jage
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prove $E\frac{X^k}{\omega X^{2r}+\sigma}<\infty$ for $\omega,\sigma>0, k\in\{0,1,...,2r\}$, $r\in \mathbb{N}$

I have found a statement here equation 23 without explanation that $E\frac{X^k}{(\omega X^2+\sigma)^r}<\infty$ for $\omega,\sigma>0, k\in\{0,1,...,2r\}$, $r\in \mathbb{N}$, where we don't know if $EX^r$ exists. I have tried to understand it,…
toki
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toy collection question

Every box of cereal contains one toy from a group of five distinct toys, each of which is mutually independent from the others and is equally likely to be within a given box. On average, how many boxes of cereal will you need to open in order to…
shrizzy
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Calculate the expected value of $T_{1}$? What about expected value of $T_{2}$?

Let $N_{t}$ be an inhomogeneous Poisson process with current intensity $3\cdot \ln(1+t)$. Calculate the distribution for $T_{1} (=S_{1})$ and conditional distribution $T_{2} (=S_{2}-S_{1})$ conditional on $T_{1}$ and unconditional distribution for…