Questions tagged [markov-chains]

Stochastic processes (with either discrete or continuous time dependence) on a discrete (finite or countably infinite) state space in which the distribution of the next state depends only on the current state. For Markov processes on continuous state spaces please use (markov-process) instead.

A Markov chain is a stochastic process on a discrete (finite or countably infinite) space in which the distribution of the next state depends only on the current state. These objects show up in probability and computer science both in discrete-time and continuous-time models. For Markov processes on continuous spaces please use .

A discrete-time Markov chain is a sequence of random variables $\{X_n\}_{n\geq1}$ with the Markov property, namely that the probability of moving to the next state depends only on the present state and not on the previous states, i.e. $$\mathbb P(X_{n+1}=x\mid X_{1}=x_{1},X_{2}=x_{2},\ldots ,X_{n}=x_{n})=\mathbb P(X_{n+1}=x\mid X_{n}=x_{n}),$$ if both conditional probabilities are well defined, i.e. if $\mathbb P(X_{1}=x_{1},\ldots ,X_{n}=x_{n})>0.$

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Equivalent statements about transition matrix of a Markov chain

Let $P=(p_{ij})_{i,j\in E}$ be a transition matrix and $E$ of finite cardinality. Show that the following three conditions are equivalent: (i) $p$ is irreducible and aperiodic. (ii) $P^n$ is irreducible. (iii) There exists a $n\in\mathbb{N}$ such…
mathfemi
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Periodicity of a communicating class

Let $(X_n)_{n\in\mathbb{N}_0}$ be a Markov chain with discrete state space $E$ and transition matrix $P$. Let $C\subseteq E$ be a communicating class. Prove or disprove the following statement. $C$ is periodic with period $p>1$ if $C$ can be…
mathfemi
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Hitting time $h_i(k)\geqslant h_i(j)\cdot h_j(k)$

Let $(X_n)_{n\in\mathbb{N}_0}$ be a Markov chain with state space $E$. The hitting time of a set $A\subseteq E$ is a RV $$ H(A)\colon\Omega\to\mathbb{N}_0\cup\left\{\infty\right\},~~\omega\mapsto\inf\left\{n\in\mathbb{N}_0 | X_n(\omega)\in…
user34632
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Why does $(p_{04}^{(n)})_{n\in\mathbb{N}}$ not converge?

Consider a Markov chain with the states 0,1,2,3,4,5,6 and transition matrix $$ P=\begin{pmatrix}\frac{1}{5} & \frac{3}{5}& 0 & 0 & \frac{1}{5} & 0 & 0\\0 & 0 &1 & 0 &0&0&0\\0&\frac{1}{3}&0&\frac{2}…
mathfemi
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Why is $1/4$ the probability of hitting 6, starting in 0?

We had the following Markov chain: I cannot see the following statement: Starting in 0, the probability of hitting 6 is $1/4$. I do not see because what does this mean "hitting 6"? In how many steps? Maybe you can explain. With greetings
user34632
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Why is this class recurrent?

In our reading we had the following example for a Markov chain. I cite from the reading: Here we have three communicating classes: $\left\{0\right\}, \left\{1,2,3\right\}$ and $\left\{4,5,6\right\}$. Two classes, namely $\left\{1,2,3\right\}$ and…
user34632
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Markov chains and boundary theory

In the next semester there is a reading called "Markov chains and boundary theory". I have at least an imagination what a Markov chain is, but what is meant with boundary theory in this context? Maybe you can give me a short impression what could be…
user34632
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Memoryless Property of Markov Chains

I'm trying to understand Markov Chains and have across the following in a book: $ \sum\limits_{y=0,1,....m−1}p(x,y)P(T_A
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Modelling Transition Between States without Markov Property

I have a data set that I'm trying to model out. My data set tracks an individual items over 20 periods. In each period each item can be in one of four states. There are no restrictions on how items can move between states. I want to be able to…
1er23
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Markov chain probability that a state changes

For the Markov chain given below what is the best way to find the probability P{$x_n = x_{n-1}$} and P{$x_n \neq x_{n-1}$} The transition matrix of the chain is \begin{array}{} 1/3 & 2/3 & 0 \\ 0 & 2/3 & 1/3 \\ 0 & 2/3 & 1/3 \end{array}
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limiting probability - what matrix to write

To find the limiting probability you solve the systems of equations: $\vec{\pi}=P\vec{\pi}$ $\Sigma \pi_j = 1$ and my teacher told us "you could rewrite this as matrices". Having just completed a first intro course in Linear Algebra, I'm curious…
jacob
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In a transition matrix, is the biggest component of the stationary distribution the one that correspond to the column with the biggest entries-sum?

Given a transition matrix, is the biggest component of the stationary distribution the one that correspond to the column whose sum of entries is the biggest among all columns? (By "correspond" I mean $ \text{The } i\text{th component of the vector}…
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Kolmogorov backward equation: what is it computing?

The kolmogorov backward equation states: $P_{ij}^{'}(t) = \sum_{k \ne i} q_{ik}P_{kj}(t) - v_iP_{ij}(t)$ Is this computing the rate of transition from i to j?
knk
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Invariant measure weighted transition kernel

For $p(s^{\prime} | s, a) = (1 - \alpha)\rho(s^{\prime}) + \alpha p(s^{\prime} | s, a)$ for some $\alpha \in (0, 1)$, clearly, $\tilde{p}(\cdot | s, a)$ is a probability for every $(s, a)$. For every arbitrary policy $\pi$, define the transition…
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Very interesting Markov Chain with transition $P(0,k)=pq^{k-1}$ and $P(k,k-1)=1$

I am given this Markov chain with specific transitions: $$P(0,k)=pq^{k-1}$$ $$P(k,k-1)=1$$ $$p+q=1$$ and I am asked asked to prove that all states are positively recurrent, by showing that for any k and l, $E_k(T_l)<\infty$ find a probability…