Questions tagged [markov-chains]

Stochastic processes (with either discrete or continuous time dependence) on a discrete (finite or countably infinite) state space in which the distribution of the next state depends only on the current state. For Markov processes on continuous state spaces please use (markov-process) instead.

A Markov chain is a stochastic process on a discrete (finite or countably infinite) space in which the distribution of the next state depends only on the current state. These objects show up in probability and computer science both in discrete-time and continuous-time models. For Markov processes on continuous spaces please use .

A discrete-time Markov chain is a sequence of random variables $\{X_n\}_{n\geq1}$ with the Markov property, namely that the probability of moving to the next state depends only on the present state and not on the previous states, i.e. $$\mathbb P(X_{n+1}=x\mid X_{1}=x_{1},X_{2}=x_{2},\ldots ,X_{n}=x_{n})=\mathbb P(X_{n+1}=x\mid X_{n}=x_{n}),$$ if both conditional probabilities are well defined, i.e. if $\mathbb P(X_{1}=x_{1},\ldots ,X_{n}=x_{n})>0.$

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for a reducible DTMC finding the stationary distribution

I got the following transition matrix which has 4 states and 2 irreducilbe the state are [1,2,3,4] .5 .5 0 0 P= .5 .5 0 0 .5 0 .25 .5 …
Fernando Martinez
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Finding a Markov chain with period $4$ and $6$ with the smallest number of states.

Question: Find the smallest $n$ for which there exists a Markov chain with $n$ states such that it is periodic simultaneously with period $4$ and $6$? Put "does not exist" if such a Markov chain does not exist. The definition of periodicity I…
Michał
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Spectral gap of a Markov chain with a complete associativity graph

Consider a Markov chain where every state has a $\delta$ probability of transitioning to every other state. Is the spectral gap of this Markov chain also at least $\delta$?
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Do Markov kernels with non-zero entries have a specific name in the literature?

The question is as in the tile. I want to contrast some results about Markov kernels with non-zero entries over finite support and I am not finding much. So I wondered if they have a specific name I should look under.
ABIM
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random walk on $\mathbb{N}$

Consider a simple random walk on $\mathbb{N}$, defined as: on any given step of the process there is a 0.5 chance of moving forward 1 step, and a 0.5 chance of going all the way back to 0. find the probability that in finite amount of time, we will…
Kevinlove
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Maximal irreducibility measure of positive Markov chain

I am following "Markov Chains and Stochastic stability" by Meyn and Tweedie. Throughout the book they use the convention that $\psi$ refers to a maximal irreducibility measure, and call the corresponding chain $\psi$-irreducible. When a…
Kristan
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Understanding proof of simple Markov property

The simple Markov property says that if $X$ is $Markov(\lambda, P)$, then conditional on $X_m = i$, $(X_{m+n})_{n\geq 0}$ is $Markov(\delta_i, P)$ and is independent of the random variables $X_0, ..., X_m$. I have proved the first part of the…
Randall
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P(X_{t+1}} = k | X_t \neq k) in a Markov Chain.

Let $(X_t)_{t\in \mathbb{N}}$ be a Markov chain with transition matrix P, initial distribution $\mu$ and state space $\chi$. I know that for $k \in \chi, \mathbb{P}(X_{t+1} = k | X_t =k) = P(k,k)$. I want to know how to calculate $\mathbb{P}(X_{t+1}…
Shinobu
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Bagel monster eats bagels

Say I have 3 big bagels and 7 tiny bagels in a bag. Every minute, Bagel Monster randomly picks a bagel from the bag. If it's a tiny bagel, it's eaten; if it's a big bagel, it's cut into 2 pieces, where one half is eaten and the other half is put…
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First step analysis on mean time to absorption of Markov chains

From "An introduction to Stochastic Modeling" by Pinsky and Karlin: Let $T = \min \{n \ge 0 : X_n \ge r\}$ where $\{X_n\}$ is a Markov chain with transient states $0, 1, \dots, r-1$ and absorbing states $r, r+1, \dots, N$. Define $w_i =…
Oliver G
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Markov chain subchains yield bigger chain

Assuming both $X \to Y \to Z$ and $Y \to Z \to W$ are Markov chains, I want to prove that $X \to Y \to Z \to W$. I don't really know how to do that. The normal formula is: $P(x,y,z,w) = P(x) P(y|x) P(z|x,y) P(w|x,y,z)$ Now, because $X \to Y \to Z$…
moert4
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Markov chain - clique

Is there a special name (or case) for a finite Markov chain which all states are reachable from any state with positive probability? Does anyone familiar with a problem modeled by this kind of chain?
ori
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How to find end state probabilities of a state transition probability matrix?

Given I have a state transition matrix where we move from state to state by the roll of a die, with 13 in-game states plus states 14, 15 are the two end game states (14 one outcome, 15 another), how do I compute the total probability that say 14…
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Finding conditional probabilities in a Markov chain

I am working on a Markov chain problem and need help understanding how to find the vector of probabilities for the third step, given that we have ended up in state 2 or 5 at the fifth step. Here is the transition matrix I am m working with: $$ P =…
Olha
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Understanding markov chains in the brms package's brm function

I am trying to use the brms package's brm function to fit bayesian mixed effect models. The documentation isnt very clear on what exactly is achieved by increasing the number of chains, number of iterations and warmup. It would be helpful if someone…
rAmAnA
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