Questions tagged [monte-carlo]

Questions on Monte Carlo methods, methods that require the repeated generation of pseudo- or quasi-random numbers for computing their results.

When solving problems that depend on a large number of variables, an analytical solution may not exist or may be too hard to compute variable-by-variable because of the curse of dimensionality. In these situations, Monte Carlo methods sample the space of variables in a random way to obtain numerical approximations. The choice and distribution of sampling points is critical to obtaining accurate results – for this reason, quasi-random sampling (e.g. the Sobol or Halton sequences) is often employed.

The method was named in 1946 by Stanislaw Ulam in reference to the Monte Carlo casino.

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Monte Carlo method to find minimum value of a function

As far as I understand the Monte Carlo methods from a non-rigourous point of view because unfortunately I didn't study mathematics formally. For example to find a minimum value of a function $f(x)$ in a given interval $[a,b]$: Generate $N$ uniform…
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Monte Carlo double integral over surface of $|x|+|y| \leq 1$

$\iint_{|x|+|y|\le1}\!x^2\,dxdy$ I am supposed to calculate this by using Monte Carlo integration. Can anyone give basic hints or directions? I know the idea behind the Monte Carlo integration method but my brain can't seem to be able to grasp any…
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Showing an equivalence with Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic

Background Information: Starting with the sample $X_1,\ldots, X_{N}$ and sort the sample so that $X_1\leq X_2\leq \cdots \le X_N$. In our case the data set $x_1 = 0.2$, $x_2 = 0.6$, $x_3 = 0.7$. Suppose $X\sim \mathcal{U}(0,1)$ then the cumulative…
Wolfy
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How to generate "independent" quasi random numbers

I am studying Monte-Carlo simulations using quasi random numbers and encounter the following problem: I am given a set of 1D quasi-random numbers $(X_i)$ over $[0,1)$, and would like to generate another set of 1D quasi-random numbers $(Y_i)$ over…
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How to compute transition probabilities?

I have a stationary process $(X_t)_{t \geq 0}$ with distribution $$\mathbb{P}[X_t \in A ] = \int_A f(x) \, dx$$ for any measurable set $A$ and any $t \geq 0$. I want to compute $$ \mathbb{P}[X_\tau \in B \mid X_0 \in A ].$$ Now I have $$…
Adam
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How to sample points from a bounded polytope?

I have a bounded polytope $C \subset \mathbb{R}^n$ characterized by the following restraints: $$ x \in C \Leftrightarrow \sum_{i=1}^n x_i = 1 \text{ and } Ax \leq b$$ for some matrix $A \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times n}$ and vector $b \in \mathbb{R}^n$.…
Adam
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Forecasting future revenue and expensces

I am trying to forecast future revenue and expenses in a company. In the past I used moving average method but later I am more inclined to try to do that by using monte carlo simulation. I am wondering can i use simple random walk pattern for that…
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Determining Errors in Monte Carlo Simulation

I was wondering if anyone could throw light on possible errors associated with Monte Carlo sampling. I seem to be getting values that are slightly different each time despite running my model for 500,000 iterations and I was wondering how I could…
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Ensuring Local Proximity in Proposed Samples for MCMC with a Given Unconditional Proposal Distribution

I'm currently working on a project where my objective is to sample from a target distribution $p(x)$ using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. The primary tool at my disposal is an unconditional proposal distribution $q(x)$ that is easy to…
andy90
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Monte Carlo Simulation

I am running a probabilistic analysis for civil engineering purposes(I am finding the failure probability of a structure). I am using three methods: FOSM, FORM and Monte Carlo. I get similar failure probabilities from all 3methods, however, the mean…
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Can you translate the equation (1.5) and (1.6) into plain English?

The above text is taken from the book Molecular Dynamics Simulation: Elementary Methods by J. M Haile, Pub: 1992, Page-14. Can you translate the equation (1.5) and (1.6) into plain English? In 2D, integration means the area between a curve and…
user366312
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Under what assumption 0/0 =1 (Monte Carlo)

The following is taken from some lecture notes on Monte Carlo methods: I have never seen in anywhere else that we can treat $0/0=1$. Why it is okay to do it here?
Sam
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Proof of Knuth's Theorem

Hey there I'm looking for the proof of Knuth's Theorem such that it satisfies its following formulation: The linear congruential generator $h(x) = (ax + c) \mod k$ has cycle length $k$, if and only if (1) $c$ are $k$ relatively prime (2) every prime…
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Is it possible finding Real Shape using Monte Carlo

I have the image below, where you cannot find real shape using Monte Carlo. Same rasio but different shapes. The 1/2 rasio could have different shapes or angle, like triangle or half square or any shapes as the image above. But Monte carlo used…
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essential understanding issue in monte carlo simulation

lets look at my problem with this example: $$ \int_0^1 f(x) dx=\mathbb{E}[f(U)]$$ where $U$ is uniformly distributed on $[0,1]$. The Monte Carlo estimator would be $\displaystyle M:=\frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^n f(U_i)$ for i.i.d. copies of $U.$ Then…
StefanWK
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